Math is an important part of video games. It’s instrumental in designing them, selling them, and even writing about them.

That last one might sound a little peculiar, but if you’ve been watching the market as long as I have, it’s not hard to pick out a release date based on past performance and a little basic arithmetic. And Five Nights at Freddy’s 4 developer Scott Cawthon? His release schedule isn’t set in stone, but it paints a pretty clear picture of what’s likely to come.

Earlier this month Cawthon revealed that FNAF4 would be released on August 8th, but last night he decided to quietly sneak the game onto Steam (no doubt smiling as he watched the world freak out, while at the same time counting his rapidly expanding net worth). The Five Nights at Freddy’s series has always appeared on desktops first, and each time it has been followed by an Android release, then an iOS release.

With the first game there were pretty long stretches between releases — a 19 day wait for Android, and another 11 days after that for iOS. But FNAF2 and FNAF3 both saw full mobile releases within 10 days of their desktop counterpart. Both sequels also had iOS launches on Thursdays — aka the big day for new releases.

If past performance is indicative of future behavior, then the release dates for the mobile versions of Five Nights at Freddy’s 4 become fairly clear. Assuming Cawthon decides to split the difference between PC and iOS dates (as he did with FNAF3), we think it’ll shake out as follows:

  • FNAF4 Android release date: July 27th, 2015
  • FNAF4 iOS release date: July 30th, 2015

It’s worth stressing again that this is just pure speculation — but since it’s speculation based on past performance, we’re feeling pretty confident.

Whether we’re right or wrong, though, it seems safe to say that mobile gamers will be scared out of their animatronic-loving pants again soon.