Prediction Number 2: Hidden Object and other Download Games go Freemium

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(15)

By Joel Brodie
Jan 4, 2011, 8:42am

If there is one truth in casual games, it is that casual gamers love hidden object games. In 2010, we continued to view and review at least 3 new hidden object games released per week and I predict this trend will continue even more so in 2011. But I also predict you’ll buy and play hidden object games in different ways in 2011.

The reasons for the continual popularity of hidden object games (HOGs) are plenty. HOGs appeal to Baby Boomer gamers and the Baby Boomers are the biggest and fastest growing segment of the US population. Hidden object games represent an evolution of the adventure genre, which has been popular forever (think Myst). And, hidden object games work perfectly with the Game Club digital distribution model, originally made popular by Big Fish Games.

Yet, just because hidden object games and the Game Club model is a match made in heaven does not mean it’s will be only way to sell and play such games in 2011.

As mentioned in my prediction post yesterday, Apple plans to add Mac games to iTunes this week. At first, games will only be sold as standalone products in iTunes. But, in the same way Apple added micro-transaction support for iPhone and iPad apps in iTunes eventually, they will do the same for Mac games sometime in 2011.

And when they do, game developers who create hidden object games will experiment with the freemium model because it’s been so successful everywhere else.

In the freemium games model, games are offered for free but gamers can purchase items in the games to advance or continue. It’s the secret to the success for many Facebook and iPhone games, since more people can try the game (since it’s free) before they buy items in the game. According to InStat, the virtual items market in games was worth $7.3 billion in 2011 and will grow to $14 billion in 2015!

Surely, casual game download companies will experiment with the freemium model sometime in 2011.

I think that by mid-year, game developers will experiment in offering the first few levels for hidden object games for free and then try to sell additional levels for gamers to finish the game. I don’t think this will work, since the alternative to download a free trial of the game and buy it for $7 (if not premium) is a more compelling value proposition than the episodic model.

But, I do think that the freemium model could work for hidden object games if you offer the entire game for free but charged users to purchase hints to move forward in the game and later updated the game with more episodes. By the end of the year, game developers will figure out how to make the freemium model work for download games and especially with HOGs.

The Game Club model will be the pre-dominant way to purchase and play hidden object games for a long, long time.

But, it will not be the only way.

I have often heard industry insiders tell me that people who play hidden object and other download games will never change the way they play and pay for their games because they are generally an older demographic and do not like change. But, I think this analysis is wrong.

Hidden object game players are generally older but they are also among the most flexible Internet users when it comes to finding the best game deals for games. Remember, the casual games downloads market barely existed 10 years ago and now it’s worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Until Big Fish Games launched their Game Club just 3 years ago, no one was subscribing to play such games, they were buying them on a per unit basis.

So, there you have it. Prediction #2 is that the freemium game model will be the next big thing in the world of hidden object games.

Read more: 2011 Predictions

Comments (15)

cardinella
Jan 4, 2011, 9:12am

I wish a place like BFG would have an option to pay a yearly fee to have unlimited play but not own the games on their site. I tend not to replay HOGs again and would prefer to use an option like that. I know other places do offer that but they don't have as many new HOGs as BFG. The freemium games model doesn't sound too appealing to me. I hate FB so I've never played any of their games. Thanks for interesting article.

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dck133
Jan 4, 2011, 9:25am

I agree with Cardinella. I rarely replay the game so would be happier with unlimited gameplay but not being allowed to keep the games should I drop the membership. I heard way back when it was $20 a month for unlimited games, but by the time i joined it was the 6.99 a game model. Freemium games don't sound like they are for me either. I prefer to have it or not - I don't like being nickled and dimed in order to get the full version. Daniela

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cardinella
Jan 4, 2011, 9:52am

Yep. I totally agree, dck133. I hope the nickel and dime model does NOT work. I would definitely find a new, cheaper hobby in lieu of freemium gaming.

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carfixer1957
Jan 4, 2011, 10:12am

Currently, Generation X and the beginning of Generation Y clearly dominate the iPhone/iPod/iPad market. Nobody can predict the future 100 percent, but I am willing to say that I firmly believe there will be casual downloadable games in the next 10 and even 20 years. When that time comes, it will be time for Generation X (b 1960-1979) to take over that market. :)

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DamaDeLuz
Jan 4, 2011, 10:14am

I agree with the others...I tend not to replay HOGs that much so I don't buy them anymore. I do purchase a lot of TM & Match 3 games because I do replay them over & over. I like the idea of a yearly fee. I have been a member of BFG for years and do like having my purchased games available for redownload if I happen to change computers. Good article & thanks for the info.

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mcurty
Jan 4, 2011, 10:31am

Agree with others. If freemium comes to a Casual Gaming sites, I will be gone. They have started a bit of the episodic releases already where a LFG is released as 2 smaller games, so you have to buy both to finish the story. I don't like that. Guess GOG will become my next best friend if freemium should happen.

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nikkihayes
Jan 4, 2011, 11:21am

I don't agree with the point about more people being able to try games for free with the freemium model, HO games almost always have a free 1 hour playing time available (the only ones that don't are occasional large file adventure/HO games), with this type of game an hour is plenty of time to see if it is worthy buying. Also, there is Wild Tangent's very successful idea of free/rent/buy options with all their games which is excellent for those games we want to play once but don't quite like enough to buy, great for HO games - many of which have very limited replayability value. I am surprised that more companies have not started using this model rather than the freemium idea. So far as I can see, freemium would result in more players but less sales for games developers and retailers, its suitable enough for social gaming but I'll state here and now I think this prediction is wrong - time will tell which of us is right ;o)

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lackoo
Jan 4, 2011, 11:24am

Freemium games model ? Casual games developers really run out of fresh ideas, if they want to use that in the near future .We already have some kind of assembly line production ( i hope i used the right words ) of sequels and HOGs . I'm against ,how game developers forcing the customers to buy the CE of their game if they want an extra hour of gameplay . To tell the truth , the replayability of HOGs are limited , TMG sequels are the same old base game with some new graphics theme . Facebook and iPhone games ? Do you think every people using them ? I see more fantasy in the "indie" game developement , than in the casual . ( sorry for my english )

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dragonseye
Jan 4, 2011, 4:29pm

As every time before, I had to say (again) - "Great article Joel ! :)"... I`m glad that you write about HOGs and freemium model of sales - but nobody purchase hints for move forward until "walkthroughs" on GZ are free :D (its joke, I know you mean on different type of "hints"). One thing you didn`t mention in your prediction No2 (and I think its soooo important) is GENRE INNOVATIONS (espec. in HOGs). After 10 years of existence -today, its obviously that HO genre going in "Point&ClickAdv direction" (even files size are much bigger).Only, "classic HO scene with text-list of items" stayed as trademark of HO but, there are a lot of ppl (me too) who looked for LIPSTICKs,BONEs,SPIDERs,PAPERCLIPs etc etc in last 10 years and maybe its enough of that! Maybe its time for something different (but still inside HO genre). Last good innovation was "lookin` for fragments" in first MortimerBeckett game. What is connect between innovations and d/l model ? Of course, there is no connection but if developers offering new and interesting "stuffs" in their games and big portals a support THIS games nothing will change in d/l model because when you got something new,interesting and different, there is no reason to "break your head" how to sell your "product"... In short: Don`t think about download model - think about game you wanna sell ! 2011.MAIN(and important) Prediction - More innovations in HOGs !

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Imberis
Jan 4, 2011, 10:15pm

"Freemium" is the worst. It's so disheartening to really get into a game only to find out that you either have to pay or wait hours and hours if you really want to get anything done (like some Facebook and iPhone games). Another pitfall is that if it's a long game, you'll probably have to continually shell out money in order to keep playing. Even though it's likely to be small amounts of money, it's irritating to the customer. If this really is the new "thing," I agree that it won't go over very well.

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bothered
Jan 5, 2011, 1:58am

I there were a game you could play for free but had to pay for more levels/hints, whatever, I feel sure I wouldn't even try it. The way we can play for an hour then buy if we like it is the best way. Adding extra costs during play is a definite no no as far as I'm concerned. Oh and there is a site where you can buy a yearly subscription and download and keep as many games as you like, it's called Shockwave.

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James_Kit
Jan 5, 2011, 3:20am

60 minutes free trial is more than enough to try out the games. Most HOGS don't have that much gameplay to make freemium reliable business model for them, unless you expect people to pay for the list of items to find on each scene :D Yearly fee may sound good to players, the problem is that HOGS are very expensive to make and without $6.99 or $13.99 price tag per game developers would not create them. HOGs are like movies - don't you go to cinema and pay as much for the movie ticket (for the movie that is usually shorter than HOG play time)? I can imagine "all you can eat" model would work for older games, but for new games it would be disaster. That's why you see so many new games on BFG first and later on other portals.

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joel
Jan 5, 2011, 8:59am

Thanks for all the great comments. Just to make sure everyone understands my point, I am not suggesting that the Farmville style game mechanic (where you play, wait, etc) will take over hidden object games. I am suggesting that game companies may modify the freemium model and try to make it work with download and hidden object games. The problem with the 60 minute free trial from a developer perspective is that assuming best case scenario that only 5% purchase the game, that means that 95% of people are not paying a penny, and that's not the best deal for developers. My idea of a freemium model for hidden object games would mean the entire game is free and consumers are only playing for hints or extra levels beyond what they play today. But, as some game developers here have pointed out correctly, this may end up making less money than the current free trial download model that you see today and once you go all in for free, it's tough to go back. Finally, I do agree that Wild Tangent's rental/download model is a great model for both developers and players. Part of the reason I decided to add Wild Tangent's feed automatically to Gamezebo is because I think it's such an interesting approach. Thanks, Joel

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lilprincessred
Jan 5, 2011, 11:50am

Believe me, what I'm hearing on other forums, this will run off a great deal of the casual game focus. I asked my daughter, who is getting an art degree to work with game and animated movies, what she thought. She said she would open her own game company. Look out! She is tenacious! She hated the thought of this idea. She remembers Gaia and hated the buy this, buy that attitude. Same with facebook. The only reason she has an account is because the college insisted on it to contact them in case of an emergency. So developers, if you are reading, this is one middle age woman who won't go for your idea! My daughter has gotten a lot of her friends hooked on casual gaming and they prefer it over facebook too! But your new fangled idea won't fly ..

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cakefordinner
Jan 7, 2011, 12:06pm

Some portals have already rolled out episodic versions of games that can still be purchased in full (badly revamped Drac and Kaptain Brawe, for example) and I didn't go near them (the cut up versions). I did opt for a discounted version of the new, episodic (no other choice except to wait for all the episodes to be released) Back to the Future game, but that was only because I didn't want to wait and pay TONS more money for the individual episodes. Where did these decisions come from? The developers? Not in a million. The requests came from portals who wanted to release/re-release larger games for more money than they had been getting for older, point and click games (3 guesses who that was; first 2 don't count). At any rate, I can't really think of any Freemium model that I could stomach. I'd never buy a hint/solution, I'm not particularly enamored of the "cloud," and I want the whole thing, not just bits and pieces. I might go with an episodic game, once in a great while, but my primary buying will be full versions that I can download and never have to deal with again (that's why I have an external drive so I can install/uninstall at my whim). I agree with your assessment, Joel, of the WildTangent (also Metaboli has this same model) model where you pay a monthly rental, download all the games you want and play them until you cancel your subscription (gameplay access ceases once your subscription ends). Although, I'd like to know if WildTangent has improved their, then, hefty footprint and intrusive, resource hogging DRM that drove me away, permanently, about 6 or 8 years ago.

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