My Predictions for 2011: Apple and iOS replaces the PC as number one platform for casual games (Prediction #1)

  
 
(7)
By Joel Brodie
Jan 3, 2011, 7:21am

It’s January 3rd, and that means two things. Vacation time is over (sorry, kids of the world). And, it’s time for me to put on my thinking cap and proclaim 5 casual gaming trends you’ll see in the upcoming year. That way, in the small event they happen, I’ll be proclaimed a genius!

Every day this week, I’ll make a casual game prediction that will either astound you or make your shake your head.

Today’s prediction: Apple and iOS eclipses Microsoft and Windows to become the #1 platform to developer casual games for.

For the longest time, game developers created games for the PC first and released a Mac version months later (or never). In 2011, there will be a role-reversal. The reason is iTunes.

On January 6 (just 3 days from now), Apple will release Mac software in iTunes. By itself this will not have a big impact at first since there are far more PC running Windows than Mac’s in the world.

From a developer’s standpoint, however, this is huge. iTunes pays out 70% of revenues to game developers and keeps only 30%, which is essentially the opposite of what game developers earn by selling a PC game through digital distribution or retail.

Furthermore, game developers can set the price with Apple (they can’t with PC games) and since games are developed in Objective-C, it is relatively easy to develop a game for both the Mac and iPad at the same time, and just a little more challenging to do so also with the iPhone (it’s more a graphics than a coding issue).

When you combine the facts that developers can earn more twice as much per Mac than PC game unit, can set their price, and can develop games for Mac, iPad, and iPhone and sell on iTunes on the same time, the answer is clear.

The PC market may be bigger, but the market opportunity will be larger for game developers on Apple’s iOS platforms. For the first time ever, games will come out on the Mac before the PC.

That is, unless Microsoft creates an iTunes competitor of their own (think Zune for the PC).

Read more: 2011 Predictions, Apple

 

Comments (7)

cyrus_zuo's picture
cyrus_zuo
Jan 3, 2011, 10:30am
I'd personally say that this prediction for the future is already true in the present (and has been for at least a year). I'd also add another KEY point to what makes iOS great that you didn't make mention of. Any type/genre of game can be successful on the iPhone, including casual game types that struggle to sell on the portals (and essentially every genre other than HO struggles to be financially successful on the portals). As someone who makes games, iOS is a wonderful thing! Here's to hoping the Apple Mac App store will open up the Mac market like iTunes has done for the mobile market. I'm really thankful Apple has been as successful as it has been in creating a marketplace that has access to the average person who might not otherwise play games!
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Scot1227's picture
Scot1227
Jan 3, 2011, 11:12am
Think Joel is right as I play more on my Ipad now than the computer, also agree with cyrus. The developers make more money from Apple than the portals which will be the deciding factor in my mind.
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puzzledone's picture
puzzledone
Jan 4, 2011, 12:22am
Just because the developers can make more money from Apple, doesn't necessarily mean consumers can make more money to spend on more and more gizmos. For many, the changes would be luxury items in addition to what they already have invested in that work fine, thank you. And many with vast collections of games already installed (or can be reinstalled) on pcs. Okay, I splurged and bought a laptop after many years of buying pc games only for portability when I had to be away from home for an extended period during renovations. But the screen is big enough to play most games already bought. And nice to have when internet is down intermittantly or a bad connection. Or when one cannot sit at a desk long enough to finish a game, disabilities and such. (lower incomes). I know there is the "can't wait" gamer market, (CEs) but the premise that that would be incentive to switch to Apple for first release, seems to be thin. If Apple users are used to waiting for later releases, I'd expect pc users would wait too. I mean, those who can't afford to update equipment just to buy new games, or would even want to play their games genres on anything but a home computer. I'm all for devs making more money to make more and better games, but where are more consumers coming from on the demand side? We go through enough changes just upgrading Windows OS, leaving behind games we loved on 98 and ME. But it's been gradual enough to keep up with compatibility through XP, Vista, W7 or added resources. Yes, I just added a gig of ram on my 4 yr old pc to play some newer games demanding more memory. That was feasible. If I had to buy a new computer every few years just to play games...well...I guess I'd just go back to watching my hundreds of movies on VHS and play some of the hundreds of games I have now. IMO this sounds like the auto industry making more cars people couldn't afford to buy just to go here to there, intown shopping, kids to school. What happened? The "Pre-Owned" car market boomed and new auto makers went belly up. Yeh, I'm holding on to my old HP with WinME, at least I can still play Scrabble on it. Probably the most time honored game ever.
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puzzledone's picture
puzzledone
Jan 4, 2011, 12:54am
A salient point made above "except for HOGs". It is a genre thing as many many middle age to seniors are discovering pc casual games over the past year or two who never played before. And women. And the bigger the screens the better as eyesight fades, memory fades, casual games with no timers for those who just want to relax not play under pressure. This is a huge new market which has opened for casual gaming, especially retirees who have time to play over prolonged periods and can fit it into a budget. So, good point re opening interest in gaming to those who would play more now on new itech and mobility and smaller screens. Those other genres could do well, but I'd like to know which market has the potential to grow even more over the other. Probably genre vs genre along with lifestyles. As the population ages as is the case, I predict more players will be trading in their iphones for bifocals and going back to their pcs.
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cakefordinner's picture
cakefordinner
Jan 4, 2011, 1:33pm
I'm at the tail end of the Boomer generation and own an iPhone, iPod and iPad...Fed Ex is delivering my new Mac, later today. No more crashing, BSOD, stalling, cluttered registry and files and no virus/worm/trojan issues. I did order antivirus for my Mac (script kiddies just aren't writing them for Macs because most own PCs, but that could change). I will be installing XP on my Mac (with virtualization software so I can avoid partitioning), because I still need it to run Windows based software I can't afford to replace, yet. So, I can still play all my Windows games plus start purchasing iOS games when the new "store" opens, in 2 days. Not only do developers make more money from Apple, they also offer a subscription based developer program ($99/year) where developers can get hands-on help with everything they need to create Windows and Mac software, at the same time. The key for me is efficiency, challenge, quality and fun. I don't think age has anything to do with it. As far as cost, that very well may go down as more people switch from Windows to iOS. My new Mac was definitely pricier, but I saved my pennies just so I could finally get rid of my Windows based PC. Luckily for me (price wise), my new iPod and iPad were Christmas presents from a very nice son.
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lilprincessred's picture
lilprincessred
Jan 5, 2011, 11:58am
The focus group for most HOG players does tend to be middle age to senior women. It keeps the mind sharp. So if you were to tell my mom to go out and buy an Ipad because that was the only way to get games, she'd tell you off. She likes her laptop. She also doesn't want to spend loads of money on a new computer after she just bought this one. Also, how many seniors would have the money to keep buying new gadgets every three months just to get two or three games here and there??? Plus how many would have the 'want' to learn a new OS? The frustration factor would be exorbitant and they would quit buying.... So that's quite a big loss in revenue... The craft stores would see a surge again. I'll give up BUYING games and join the leagues of just crafters.
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cakefordinner's picture
cakefordinner
Jan 7, 2011, 11:31am
As far as "learning" a new system goes, the iPad is pretty darned easy and there aren't a ton of "bells and whistles" to make figuring things out difficult. Same goes for the Mac. With your purchase, for absolutely no additional money, you can bring your new Mac to any Apple store and they will install Windows and all your Windows-based software and games and you can pick it up in 24 to 48 hours. FREE! If you like (I did), you can purchase a 1 year subscription to One on One ($99 for an entire year) where you set an appointment that's most convenient for you, go to your favorite Apple store and they will give you personalized, detailed classes (individual or group) on anything you want to do. Whether it's just learning how to use a Mac/Macbook, helping you with special projects (designing a website, creating a spreadsheet or presentation, or anything you can think of) or using a new program. It's not just one appointment/class; it's as many, as often, as you want, until your subscription expires. Their customer service is mind-blowingly amazing (on the phone and in the store).
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