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Post a reply << Go BackTopic: Recession? What Recession?
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I think it will make games more popular as people will want some escape from the cruel world outside and what better way than to immerse yourself into a HOG game
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I think the games geared for family play will be the most popular. The whole family can enjoy games at a very reasonable cost. I know the $20 I spend for a game gives me countless hours of pleasure. I do think people will demo a lot more of the games and only buy the ones they really like.
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Firstly can I say yet again what a concise, thought provoking and extremely well written subject update Joel. THis gamesites gets lots of plaudits and deserves every one of them.
My family only just survived the recession of the 90's without losing our home so know what it is like to be without a job, moving area to find work etc and as you say this one is predicted to bite even more.
I found 'casual games' rather late on , HOG's are my favourites (Mortimer is my Hero!). When there was alot of opinions muted that downloads would fade as the market moved to other platforms and games came out on Nintendo DS- Millionheir (do not have a Ninetnedo)and mobiles (don't have one of those either) I was quite concerned that my new found enjoyable but relatively inexpensive activity would be threatened. Now though it may be that the download market holds its own and perhaps even prospers. I certainly think that many of the developers who think they can just 'get on the band wagon' and we will buy 'anything' will find it starts to get a bit chilly. Those that take the time and in the main send out quality games such as BFG / Real will hopefully continue to provide people like myself with hours of great gaming fun and deserve our support, which if they continue to keep to their club type price options I will aim to do.
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I agree with virtually everything you said Joel. Even without the recession, you would see a large shake out, there is just too much content hitting the market. The folks with money will consolidate their position while the folks without will find out their investors have turned off their voice mail.
Also, obviously, it is going to depend on the depth and length of the recession, which I cannot come close to predicting. If it ends quickly or is similar to recent ones, then people will have the disposable income to spend on games. If it turns out to be the worst in almost 100 years, forget even the $5 games. Also, the game clubs may be the first to suffer. When cutting back, people look at recurring expenses, like cable, like your RealArcade subscription. Thus, they may migrate from game clubs to the first site that just offers games for $6.99 (and you know it will happen, especially as some of these sites run low on cash).
Last point is to those who say entertainment won't be affected. Look at some of the other entertainment industries. Houghton Mifflin has stopped buying manuscripts. Paramount cut 20% of its films for 2009. They won't be doing this if they expected a huge uptick in entertainment spending.
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Thanks for the article, Joel. It was great, and I agree with what you said. We are not surviving the recession and are losing our home, and now things are getting a bit better, but I bought virtually no games in the 6 months prior to Oct., and not many the year before that. I have bought very few the last few months, and then only through BigFish, and only games I really, really wanted like Return to Ravenhearst. I know when things get tight at my house, entertainment is the first thing to get slashed. I've been playing a lot of games from Mostfun.com and other "free games" instead of buying. Yeah, most of them are slightly older, but I missed them when they were new, so I'm still "escaping." As more sites get the newest games "free" (Most.fun has had several new games like the latest 7 Wonders, the latest Luxor, FishCo, etc.), I have even less incentive to pay even the cheapest prices for a game.
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Some entertainment items ARE still doing well. Not everything will crash and burn.
1. The #1 movie last weekend made $46 million dollars. People are still going to the movies. That means about 4 million people +/- went to see it.
2. The North American portion of Madonna's most recent tour made $91.5 million dollars. Both AC/DC and Metallica are playing to sellout crowds. So people are still spending on live entertainment.
3. The #1 movie of the year, "The Dark Knight," made $530 million dollars. It comes out on DVD December 9th. I'm sure there will be some buyers.
4. As the article pointed out, "MCF: Return to Ravenhearst" is doing well. I would also guess that "World of Warcraft" will remain popular despite the economic downturn.
5. Both AC/DC and Metallica have sold 1.3 million copies of their new albums thus far. So some recording artists are still capable of pulling in decent numbers. People are still interested in music, but maybe they're being more selective.
In other words, what I'm trying to say is that those that were supposed to do well probably WILL, and those that weren't probably WILL NOT. I think some of it will fall on luck, timing, fate, and destiny. Is there a void in the marketplace at that time for your particular form of entertainment? If so, you might be able to take advantage of that despite poor economic conditions. But its true, some things that should have done well might not under these cirsumstances.
But I don't think a PC game like "Return to Ravenhearst" is worth $20 dollars despite the brilliance. Even "The Dark Knight" which cost well over a hundred million dollars to make will be sold for $15.99 on DVD. So there's no logic to something like "Fitness Dash" selling for $20.00 when it was made for a fraction of the cost. It's more logical that a PC game would sell for $5 - $10. There needs to be a price correction.
I definitely think QUALITY is an issue. I think the buyers will come out for quality as they have with "Return to Ravenhearst." So unfortunately, those that can't match their effort will suffer because they're ultimately going to be compared to a superior product. Those without the cash to produce higher-end games will likely feel the pinch. If you're a developer or publisher without a popular franchise, then it might be tough. But I think there's always room for something like a "4 Elements," "Magic Encyclopedia," or "Rooms: The Main Building." I think consumers are always on the lookout for something fresh and new.
But I don't like the idea of just assigning blame to the recession. If publishers and developers stopped making crappy, generic, and derivative games, then people wouldn't lose interest. What I mean is, we'll probably see at least 5 mediocre attempts from other publishers and developers at making something like "Return to Ravenhearst." I think it's better to release 5 good games a year compared to 10 bad ones. The movie studios cutting their slates down was the best thing they could have done. Too much garbage was out there anyways.
Of course, there's always a flipside in that it could go the complete opposite. Someone like Gogii Games that cranks out low-end HOG ad infinitum might end up stealing business away from a more deserving product like a "Dream Chronicles 3." It could happen because people like instant gratification. Sometimes they don't like to wait even thought they know something better is on the horizon. With all these game clubs, people will want to spend those game credits on something. But it might not always be on the good something that's really a better product. There are a number of possibilities. There's no way to know with any degree of certainty which outcome will prevail.
Sorry for the LONG, TEDIOUS, and BORING manifesto!!!
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Gamezchic, I didn't find your 'manifesto' long, tedious or boring. I think you made a lot of sense. I agree with a lot that has been writen here. Except for one thing: In my home I will remain faithful to my games! They are my escape mechanism from life outside in the 'real' world. I really think that was why the entertainment industry did so well during the 'great depression' era, people needed to escape to something because life was almost too hard to take!! And I'm sure it wasn't jusst the entertainment industry that got people through those tough times. I'll bet a lot of them would ferret out other people with like interests, i.e. baseball, and anything else, and would then have friends that they could talk to about fun things just to get their minds off of the difficulties they were really going through. Now instead of meeting together physically, we can all come together over the internet and telephone to talk and share and communicate. That is what makes difficult times a little easier to live through because we know we have friends to walk us through those difficult times!!! I know that I have friends here at Gamezebo and I hope that others can count on me to be their friend during the difficult times ahead!! I love you guys!! Especially my Gamezebo sisters!!!
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Great article Joel and well put Gamefan. I would be so sad and disappointed if downloads were fazed out. And that they may remain strong is good news for me. I just can't pay the prices for most of the other platform games ($40 bucks is a lot!). And I like to play on my computer. I discovered the Nancy Drew Adventure series because they became available on BFG...and I've played them all now (buying some non-downloads, but that's how much I love them). So they got a loyal customer by going to downloads. And being on BFG...which is almost exclusively where I buy games.
I completely agree that Gamezchic had some great points(not boring!!). Like this "If publishers and developers stopped making crappy, generic, and
derivative games, then people wouldn't lose interest."...I am so tired of these copy games that are inferior. And I usually don't buy them - but do accidently at times. I think Playfirst made all the Dash games, but the graphics in a few of them are just getting worse. I really don't get the variation in quality. For instance, Flo looks different in almost every game. What is up with that?! Speaking of Playfirst. I think their game club is overpriced, as are their micro-tranactions. I think $1 for a dress is outragious...lol. Just my opinion.
Anyway, I can't say enough about the really great games; All MCF, the Nancy Drew Adventure series and Last Day of Work games to name a few. And although I wish I could lower my expectations, I am always very disappointed when a game doesn't deliver or meet those expectations (ex. the graphics in Fitness Dash - small and not well drawn).The art is always huge for me. Anyway, thanks for all the thoughtful posts...sorry I went on and on!
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So far as I see, the casual gaming industry has hit a wall anyway, other than a Mortimer and Ravenhearst, most new offerings are too short, too glitchy and awful. For example, Alabama Smith while an excellent concept can be finished in under 2 hours.....
Return to Ravenhearst is the last game I will purchase in 2008, and for a long while, but the one venue that I believe will thrive is "Shockwave" because for a very small monthly, quarterly or yearly fee, you can play all the casual game you want, full versions.
Two of my favorites Mortimer Beckett and Mushroom Age, have made it to Shockwave just several weeks after its appearance on BFG. I should have waited, but I did not. I pay 20.00 quarterly, that is roughly 7.00 per month. And I can play as many games over and over until exhausting them all, I do not own the game, but in reality how many games have such good replay value that you want to them own anyway.
If you use the yearly than it works out to about 5 bucks per month, so in my opinion the casual gaming site that has the biggest advantage is the Shockwave Unlimited model.
One problem as well is that it takes a huge amount of money to develop these games, which is probably the reason for most them being short and lousy.........
AT least that is one man's opinion
--gnashif
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Version:1.0StartHTML:0000000163EndHTML:0000001704StartFragment:0000000554EndFragment:0000001687I think the broad field ofentertainment suffers in general from illegal downloads, whether itcomes to music, movies or games. So I guess these industries won't beas much affected from the recession as all the other industries,which do not have to cope with the download issue in better times. Ithink this recession can hardly be compared to the Great Depression,as everything has changed since then. Much more interesting would beto research to what extent the gaming industry suffered during therecession in East Asia, especially in Japan, in the end of the 90's.I think this experience could provide worthwhile ideas how peoplechange their will to purchase pc games in such a situation. I thinkthere is another perhaps positive aspect for casual games Joel didnot mention (at least I think so), though it is only an assumption,too. I guess it is very likely that a lot of people who used topurchase full-price-titles now might turn towards casual games,simply because they are notably cheaper and in a lot of cases of highquality at the same time.
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Recession? What Recession?
Report as InappropriatePosted on 12/02/08, 11:12am