In a report released recently by SecondShares.com, a research firm that estimates what private companies would be worth if they went public, Zynga has a possible value of $5 billion. A considerable sum, especially in light of the fact that a similar report from a similar firm placed that number at no more than $3.3 billion back in February. But could Zynga really be worth such astronomical amounts?
VentureBeat’s Dean Takahashi isn’t so sure. In a recent article, Takahashi explores the SecondShares.com report, and interjects with his own thoughts and feelings about the valuation;
“For a veteran who saw the dotcom madness of the late 1990s, it’s hard to watch this from the sidelines without cringing,” says Takahashi. “My guess is that the top folks at Zynga don’t like some of this speculation about Zynga’s imaginary public value. They don’t want to be overhyped and then fail to meet expectations.”
Takahashi goes on to discuss a number of realities that may impact Zynga’s value, from the possibility of Facebook’s growth slowing to the popularity of FarmVille having already peaked. Still, it’s not all doom and gloom. Dean also explores all of the things that Zynga’s doing right;
“Zynga has five of the top 10 games on Facebook, including the No. 1 game, FarmVille, which has 83 million monthly active users. That is key to locking in Zynga’s market position because it can cross sell its newest games to its existing customers at no cost; rivals who don’t have hits can’t do that so easily. Zynga also generates so much profit from its games that it can afford to advertise them heavily, helping it to reach larger and larger audiences. And even if rivals come up with better games, Zynga has proven it can clone those rival games in a matter of weeks and wind up with larger audiences than the original games of the rivals, as was shown with FarmVille’s triumph over the rival FarmTown.”
For more of Dean’s ruminations about Zynga’s recent valuation, check out the full article on VentureBeat.com.